Finante-Banci
BCR: Economia scade cu 8% in 2009 si reintra pe crestere in S2 2010
Romania va suferi o scadere economica de 8% in acest an si va reintra pe crestere economica cel mai devreme in a doua jumatate a lui 2010, an in care produsul intern brut (PIB) ar putea creste cu 0,2% in raport cu 2009, considera analistii Bancii Comerciale Romane (BCR) in raportul "Romania - condamnata la corectie".
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Banca si-a revizuit astfel prognoza de scadere a PIB pentru 2009, fata de raportul anterior, in care prevedea o contractie de 4,6% a PIB.
Analistii bancari estimeaza o contractie a consumului cu 9,8% in acest an raportat la anul trecut.
Potrivit analizei BCR, trendul dezinflationist initiat in ultimele luni se va mentine in a doua jumatate a anului, iar in decembrie am putea vedea o inflatie de 4,4%.
Analistii bancari estimeaza ca banca centrala ar putea scadea dobanda cheie pana la 7,5% in acest an (de la 8,5% cat este in prezent), si pana la 6% la finele lui 2010.
Reprezentantii BCR vad un curs mediu de 4,2 lei/euro si de 3 lei/dolar. In 2010, cursurile medii ar putea scadea la 4,1 lei/euro si 2,7 lei/dolar.
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